Belarusian journalist on the pre-election situation in Belarus: Lukashenko's affairs are bad, he made a bet on force
Belarus is going through an economic crisis, the head of the Rb Alexander Lukashenko is not very popular. Therefore, when holding the presidential elections in August, he intends to bet on forceful influence on society. According to her, yesterday's dismissal of the gove
rnment was due to the fact that Lukashenko does not fully trust former Prime Minister Sergei Rumas.
"That's why before the elections I went to put a more reliable and close person. The new Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko from the security structures, from the security forces. And the previous prime minister is a financier, he's a banker," she said.
Kalinovskaya noted that such personnel decisions show that the Belarusian leader intends to bet on force. He has no other arguments in his favor.
"Now there is a clean-up before the elections – searches, arrests of activists, potential presidential candidate blogger Tikhonovskiy, a ban on the Internet media to conduct surveys about the preferences of people where Lukashenko does not gain any ratings at all," she added.
Describing the situation in the country, the journalist calls it "very tense."
"The economy is in a serious condition, oil prices have fallen, and this is one of the main revenues of the budget, Russia does not buy Belarusian goods, that is, the situation in the economy is bad. And in connection with the coronavirus, many people who work in the service sector have been unemployed, especially in Minsk. And now during the collection of signatures for the nomination of candidates just revealed the discontent of people. Plus, the so-called guest workers have returned from Russia. This also contributes to instability," she said.
Moreover, she believes that the leading opposition candidate was a man whose video blog "Country for Life" in Belarus was not very popular.
"These guest workers were the main viewers of the channel of blogger Tikhonovsky. This format is unpopular here. In the east of Belarus, where most people go to Russia to earn money, the blogger found popularity there. Now this popularity extends to the whole of Belarus. Because the person was detained, there was dirty propaganda with the participation of a prostitute, so he had a lot of supporters," she said.
Returning to the question of the appointment of a new government, Kalinovskaya adds that except for the Prime Minister, all other figures who entered the Sovmin are known.
"Lukashenka has a very small staff ingeas. He's moving people back and forth. No one expects any reforms. Because the people are the same, and the government in Belarus is not an independent body, because Lukashenko governs everything alone. Positions in the presidential administration are much more responsible than positions in the government," she added.
The journalist compared such personnel policy with the model that was under the USSR, when the head of the department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine, the head of the department of industry, was much more influential than the Minister of Industry. The same situation, she says, is now in Belarus. The members of this government are not well known, neither respect nor trust they boast.Seriou
s role in dissatisfaction with the life of Belarusians, Tatiana said, played and coronavirus.
"It has become a catalyst for all these processes and discontent of the population. Because we do not have a quarantine, a fairly high incidence, a high mortality rate, particularly among doctors. Of course, today while the medicine is coping, that is, there is no congestion, everything is enough. At the same time, of course, people would like to declare a quarantine. That is, many believe that their loved ones would be alive if quarantine was declared," she said.
Kalinowska added that the epidemic has pushed the processes in the economy. Many people have lost their jobs, and people are afraid to use services, cafes, various entertainment establishments were left without visitors, many of them are already closed.
"That's why there is also such a tangle of economic problems. At the same time, Lukashenko said that we will support state-owned enterprises, but these small private ones, having opened the cup, must somehow survive themselves. In general, small business is now in a very bad position, about 80 percent reduced traffic. That's why these problems are also there," the Belarusian said.
The journalist reminded that everything was going very well for Lukashenko. Now, she says, everything is going very bad for him.
"Against the background of this unfortunate coincidence, he turns to the security forces. He already had a meeting with the chairman of the KGB and the chairman of the Minsk City Executive Committee. Now this is the third step – the appointment of a security officer as prime minister. Otherwise, the situation can not be held, only by force. And they are already beginning to threaten and threats are being brought to life," Tatiana Kalinovskaya concluded.
Earlier it was reported that the head of the State Military Industry has been appointed as the prime minister of Belarus.
